Preference for Next Vehicle Type
April, 1996
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This 1996 Management White Paper is being provided by The Dohring Company as a supplement to our 1996 National Automotive Consumer Study.
The national study, provided as a service to the automotive industry, focused on the most topical issues of the day including:
This white paper is intended to provide in-depth answers to help you better understand the consumer perspective on specific issues.
The national study has not been funded by any outside source and is strictly provided as a service. The design intention was to address several primary areas of importance to our automotive, OEM supplier and dealer client base.
The Dohring Company is North America's largest provider of custom market research to the retail automotive community. We have conducted more that 3,000 automotive market research studies for dealers, dealer associations, advertising agencies, manufacturers and suppliers in North America and internationally. The company, based in Glendale, California, employs over 100 full time staff and has conducted over 300,000 interviews with vehicle buyers in 1995 alone, and over one million in the past ten years.
Additionally, we are proud to have been designated Marketing Research Supplier to the 1996 Atlanta Olympic Games.
The Dohring Company is a full-service provider of marketing research and the developer of TrendTrak®, our exclusive on-site survey polling device. For additional information, please contact us at 1-800-242-8022.
A total of 1,253 respondents were surveyed from across the 50 United States in proportion to their household populations. All respondents were surveyed by telephone during December 1995, and were qualified as intending to purchase a new or used vehicle in the future from a new car dealership. The study has a standard error of ± 2.8%.
Preference for Next Vehicle Type Top
There is a continuing shift of automotive owners away from passenger cars and toward purchasing minivans, light trucks and sport utility vehicles as their next vehicles.
| Currently Own | Intend to Purchase | |
| Car | 66.30% | 53.60% |
| Minivan | 8.80% | 11.60% |
| Light Truck | 13.10% | 16.80% |
| Sport Utility Vehicle | 7.00% | 10.50% |
| Full Size Van | 1.80% | 1.60% |
Comparing this with the types of vehicles respondents currently own, we see what proportion of buyers will be returning to the market in the future to purchase the same type of vehicle and what proportion intend to switch to each of the other types of vehicle.
The table below shows which type of vehicle is currently driven compared to which type of vehicle respondents intend to purchase next. From it one can see the shifts between these principal vehicle type market segments. The column down the left side of the table represents the type of vehicle the respondents currently drive and the row across the top of the table represents the type of vehicle respondents intend to purchase next. To read the table, out of all respondents (those who intend to purchase a vehicle some time in the future from a new car dealership), one can say that: "43.8% of them currently drive a passenger car and intend to purchase a passenger car next." Or, for example, "5.1% of these future vehicle purchasers currently drive a passenger car but intend to purchase a sport utility vehicle next." Similarly, almost half of those who intend to purchase a sport utility vehicle as their next vehicle currently drive a passenger car (5.1% / 10.5% = 49%) and about a fourth of those who intend to purchase a sport utility vehicle next currently drive one (2.7% / 10.5% = 26%).
| Vehicle Currently Owned | Car | Minivan | Light Truck | Sport Utility | Full Size Van | Un-decided | Total |
| Car | 43.8% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 0.6% | 4.0% | 66.3% |
| Minivan | 1.4% | 4.2% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 8.8% |
| Light Truck | 4.1% | 0.9% | 6.1% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 13.1% |
| SUV | 1.7% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 7.0% |
| Full Size Van | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 1.8% |
| None Currently | 2.0% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | <0.1% | 0.1% | 3.0% |
| Total | 53.6% | 11.6% | 16.8% | 10.5% | 1.6% | 5.9% | 100.0% |
When do they intend to purchase their next vehicle:
| When To Purchase | Car | Minivan | Light truck | Sport Utility Vehicle | Full Size Van | Undecided | Total |
| Within 12 months | 11.1% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 0.2% | 1.3% | 22.2% |
| Within 1-2 Years | 15.0% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 0.2% | 1.7% | 27.1% |
| Within 2-3 Years | 10.6% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 19.3% |
| Within 3-4 Years | 6.1% | 0.6% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 10.9% |
| Within 4-5 Years | 3.7% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 7.2% |
| More than 5 Years | 7.2% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 13.3% |
| Total Intend to Purchase | 53.6% | 11.6% | 16.8% | 10.5% | 1.6% | 5.9% | 100.0% |
Of those who intend to purchase over the next twelve months, 50% intend to purchase a car, 13.7% intend to purchase a minivan, 19.1% intend to purchase a truck and 10.4% intend to purchase a sport utility vehicle.
Differences Across Geographic Regions Top
There were also strong regional differences in respondents' choices of next vehicle type:
| Northwest | West | Southwest | Midwest/ Central | Northeast | Southeast | |
| Car | 47.3% | 54.4% | 44.9% | 56.6% | 55.5% | 53.2% |
| Minivan | 7.3% | 12.2% | 8.7% | 10.3% | 13.2% | 13.0% |
| Light Truck | 18.2% | 13.3% | 31.5% | 14.6% | 12.5% | 18.5% |
| Sport Utility Vehicle | 14.5% | 11.1% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 11.7% | 9.1% |
| Full Size Van | 1.8% | 3.9% | <0.1% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 1.0% |
| Undecided | 10.9% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.2% |
Preferences Across Age and Gender Categories Top
Females are an increasingly important segment of automotive consumers. There are more females looking to purchase cars, minivans and sport utility vehicles as their next vehicles than males looking to purchase them.
Type of vehicle buyers intend to purchase next:
The 25 to 49 year old females represent almost half (48.3%) of future minivan buyers.
Intend to purchase minivans
Females are beginning to heavily influence Sport Utility Vehicle purchases. Over half of future sport utility vehicle buyers (53.8%) will be female, and four in ten future sport utility buyers (40.2%) will be females between 25 and 49 years old.
Intend to purchase sport utility vehicles:
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